Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks
Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.
The Italian Banking Crisis
Why are Italy's banks in crisis and what's the impact on business? The country's banks have huge numbers of non-performing loans, the result of nearly a decade of recession. The economy has shrunk by nearly 10% in that time. Some small banks have already failed, others may follow. What has it been like to do business through these very lean times? Are banks continuing to lend? And what solutions might there be for one of Europe's biggest players? Ruth Sunderland visits small businesses, the backbone of the Italian economy, and asks what is required to strengthen the banking system.
ABC Lateline Interview: Niall Ferguson, author and historian
Tony Jones speaks with renowned historian and best selling author Niall Ferguson as he visits Australia to discuss what we've learnt from the GFC and whether the populist backlash against globalisation will propel Donald Trump into the White House.
Indonesia : Selected Issues
IMF Update: Country Report No. 16/82.
RBA News: Speech by Philip Lowe, Deputy Governor - Resilience and Ongoing Challenges
A speech delivered by Philip Lowe, at the Urban Development Institute of Australia's (UDIA) National Congress in Adelaide.
What's Up with Wage Growth?
While most labor market indicators point to an economy near full employment, a notable exception is the sluggish rise of wages. However, this slow wage growth likely reflects recent cyclical and secular shifts in the composition rather than a weak labor market. In particular, while higher-wage baby boomers have been retiring, lower-wage workers sidelined during the recession have been taking new full-time jobs. Together these two changes have held down measures of wage growth.
The Right Profile: Economic Drivers and the Outlook
Headline news can give false impressions of what motivates monetary policymakers. While international developments and financial market volatility are closely monitored, what matters for policy is how those things affect jobs and inflation. The U.S. economy has had strong job growth, and inflation is low but on course to reach target. The best course remains a gradual pace of policy rate increases.
Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?
Is the current recovery more likely to end because it’s lasted so long? Have various imbalances and rigidities accumulated to make the economy frailer and more susceptible to a recessionary shock? Recent history suggests the answer is no. Instead, a long recovery appears no more likely to end than a short one. Like Peter Pan, recoveries appear to never grow old.
Changes in Labor Participation and Household Income
The percentage of people active in the labor force has dropped substantially over the past 15 years. Part of this decline appears to be the result of secular factors like the aging of the workforce. However, the participation rate among people in their prime working years—ages 25 to 54—has also fallen. Recent research suggests this decline among prime-age workers can be attributed in large part to lower participation from among the higher-income half of U.S. households.
Does College Matter?
Thinking of going or returning to college? Or forgoing it altogether? It’s a difficult decision when you have to weigh the expense of college against its potential of contributing to long-term success. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s 2014 Annual Report explores the value—and the virtue—of education from an economic, an individual, and a societal perspective.
Economic Impact of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games
The Tokyo Olympics, scheduled to be held in 2020, can be expected to have positive effects on the Japanese economy. Such effects will come mainly through the following two demand channels: (i) an increase in foreign tourism, and (ii) an increase in construction investment associated with this event.
Unicorns and delusions in Silicon Valley’s tech bubble
The signs of a tech bubble are plain to see. But Silicon Valley doesn’t want to admit it — and average investors are at risk.
FRBSF Economic Letter - Dancing Days Are Here Again: The Long Road Back to Maximum Employment
The U.S. economy is on the cusp of full health, supported by highly accommodative monetary policy in recent years. The labor market is nearing maximum employment. Inflation remains too low, but measures of its underlying trend suggest that it is not far from the Fed’s 2% target. With real progress toward these goals, the conversation has turned to normalizing policy.
FRBSF President Williams Speech - China, Rates, and the Outlook : May the (Economic) Force Be with You
Presentation to the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An agenda for China and the United States
Armonk, New York
By John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
For delivery on September 19, 2015
IMF Speech - Poised for Take-off : Unleashing Indonesia’s Economic Potential
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, September 1, 2015
FRBSF Economic Letter - Is China’s Growth Miracle Over?
The recent slowdown in China’s growth has caused concern about its long-term growth prospects. Evidence suggests that, before 2008, China’s growth miracle was driven primarily by productivity improvement following economic policy reforms. Since 2008, however, growth has become more dependent on investment and overall growth has slowed. If the recent reform plans can successfully address the country’s structural imbalances, China could maintain a solid growth rate that might help smooth its transition to high-income status.
FRBSF President Williams Speech - The Recovery’s Final Frontier?
Presentation to International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists
Los Angeles, California
By John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
For delivery on July 8, 2015
IMF Working Paper - The Leap of the Tiger : How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap
Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-income status during 1970-2010. Malaysia’s real income per capita increased to 26 percent of the U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia’s total factor productivity lagged behind that of Korea and Taiwan Province of China. The authors argue that what characterizes their experience in contrast to Malaysia’s is the creation of technologies by domestic firms and a push to leapfrog to the technological frontier at an early stage of development.
IMF Working Paper - Gauging Housing Supply in Canada : A Stock Approach
This paper estimates Canada’s housing stock to gauge the supply-side component of the recent exuberance in the Canadian housing sector. The paper adds to the current related literature by focusing on housing units and reconstructing housing stock and households series. An error correction model is estimated at the provincial level over the period 1980-2013 to estimate a measure of housing stock desequilibrium. The model predicts an excess supply in the order of ½ percent above the housing stock level consistent with fundamentals as of 2013.
FRBSF President Williams Speech - Data Is the New Black: Monetary Policy by the Numbers
Presentation to NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics
San Francisco, California
By John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
For delivery on June 19, 2015
FRBSF Economic Letter - The Puzzle of Weak First-Quarter GDP Growth
The official estimate of real GDP growth for the first three months of 2015 was shockingly weak. However, such estimates in the past appear to have understated first-quarter growth fairly consistently, even though they are adjusted to try to account for seasonal patterns. Applying a second round of seasonal adjustment corrects this residual seasonality. After this correction, aggregate output grew much faster in the first quarter than reported.
FRBSF Economic Letter - Looking Forward: The Path for Monetary Policy
The U.S. economy is on solid footing. The labor market is nearing full employment, and inflation should move back toward the Federal Open Market Committee’s target. A likely gradual removal of highly accommodative monetary policy could begin at any upcoming FOMC meeting. However, the exact timing will be driven by the incoming data. The article is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John C. Williams, to the New York Association for Business Economics in New York on May 12.
FRBSF President Williams Speech - The View from Here: The Economic Outlook and Its Implications for Monetary Policy
Presentation to CFA Society Hawaii Annual Economic Forecast Dinner, Honolulu, Hawaii
By John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States
Technological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. The author uses time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state-level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. He finds robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig-counts do in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, he estimates that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger.
Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management
In distilling a vast literature spanning the rational— irrational divide, this paper offers reflections on why asset bubbles continue to threaten economic stability despite financial markets becoming more informationally-efficient, more complete, and more heavily influenced by sophisticated (i.e. presumably rational) institutional investors.
FRBSF Economic Letter - Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth
Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth. Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but then are revised down over time as the incoming data continue to disappoint. Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data.
Drilling Down - Understanding Oil Prices and Their Economic Impact
Remarks by Timothy Lane, Deputy Governor at the Bank of Canada.
Identifying Speculative Bubbles: A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk based on price behavior alone. In response, Bradley Jones introduce a two-pillar (price and quantity) approach for financial market surveillance.
The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
November 12, 2014 -- President Charles Plosser gives his views on the economy and discusses why he remains positive about our country's economic prospects. He also shares his thoughts about the stance of monetary policy and the advantages of raising rates gradually and starting sooner instead of being forced to raise them abruptly later.
FRBSF Economic Letter - Navigating toward Normal: The Future for Policy
The Federal Reserve is on track to end asset purchases in the near future and has laid the groundwork for its plan to eventually normalize monetary policy by raising short-term interest rates. The process of policy normalization is unlikely to start soon, however, and its exact timing will depend on further improvements in unemployment, wages, and inflation. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John C. Williams to business and community leaders in Las Vegas, Nevada, on October 9, 2014.
Simplicity, Transparency, and Market Discipline in Regulatory Reform
Simplicity, Transparency, and Market Discipline in Regulatory Reform, Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Mark "Doctor-Doom" Faber talks to The Business
The opening speaker at an investment conference in Melbourne is perhaps the world's most famous living Cassandra, economist Marc Faber. He is often known as Dr Doom and Editor and Publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report".
Perspectives on the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
Perspectives on the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy, The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), Golden Series Lecture, March 6, 2014, by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Fed Tapering News and Emerging Markets
In 2013, the Federal Reserve publicly described conditions for scaling back and ultimately ending its highly accommodative monetary policy. Some emerging market countries subsequently experienced sharp reversals of capital inflows, resulting in sizable currency depreciation. But others did not. Variations in financial market reactions from one country to another appear to have been related to differences in economic conditions, which partly reflected a country’s policies before the Fed’s tapering comments.
Extended interview with Mark Carney
So many heavy hitters at G20. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney speaks to Ticky Fullerton
Extended interview with Wolfgang Schauble
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Shauble is seen by many as the architect of austerity in Europe. He spoke to Ticky Fullerton during the G20 meet.
Q&A: An Audience With Christine Lagarde
This special edition of Q&A comes from the Seymour Centre at Sydney University. This episode's special guest is the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde. She was the first woman to lead an international law firm, then the first female Trade Minister of France. Now as head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde is shaking up the global economy with her emphasis on environmental issues, economic equality and gender inclusion.
IMF Update: Country Report No. 14/5 - Australia
With GDP growth below trend and the investment phase of the mining boom having passed its peak and beginning to decline, a key issue is how Australia can manage the mining-production/export phase and encourage broader-based growth. The main external risks include a slowdown in China over the medium term and surges in global financial market volatility. The pickup in housing market activity, though welcome to date, could pose a future risk if prices accelerate and lead to overshooting.
The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?
The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the United States and other G-7 countries, and in particular decreasing unit labor costs have had a positive impact on U.S. manufacturing production. While we find it unlikely for manufacturing to become a main engine of growth in the United States, we find that U.S. manufacturing exports could provide non-negligible growth opportunities going forward.
Unconventional Monetary Policies: Looking Ahead
Speech By Naoyuki Shinohara, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund Tokyo, January 23, 2014.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Perspectives on the Economy and Monetary Policy
The 13th Annual Economic Outlook speech given at The School of Business at La Salle University, Union League of Philadelphia Business Network Philadelphia, PA on January 14, 2014, by Charles I. Plosser, President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
International Monetary Fund (IMF): The Global Economy in 2014
This is a speech by Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF, at the National Press Club, Washington DC, January 15, 2014.
Housing, Banking, and the Recovery: The Outlook
The economic outlook is increasingly positive, boosted by housing, banking, and labor market improvements. While the Federal Reserve recently eased its bond-buying program, indicating monetary policy is on the path back to normal, full normalization will take time and be based on economic data. The above link takes you to a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to Lambda Alpha International and the Arizona Bankers Association in Phoenix, Arizona, on January 7, 2014.
MINT - The Next Economic Giants
Jim O’Neil – the man who gave us the term BRIC now gives us MINT
It's Boom or Bust as BC Iron CEO Mike Young heads off to the Pilbara to face a nervous workforce., the impact on retail plungers fashion designer Ruth Tarvydas into crisis; and we meet automotive giant John Hughes.
Larry Summers at IMF Economic Forum, Nov. 8 2013
14th Annual IMF Research Conference: Crises Yesterday and Today, Nov. 8, 2013. Lawrence Henry "Larry" Summers is an American economist who is President Emeritus and Charles W. Eliot University Professor of Harvard University.
Charlie Rose interviews former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank
Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve on "The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - Economic Letter: Why Are Housing Inventories Low?
In the USA, inventories of homes for sale have been slow to bounce back since the 2007–09 recession, despite steady house price appreciation since January 2012. One probable reason why many homeowners are not putting their homes on the market is that their properties may still be worth less than the value of their mortgages, which would leave them owing additional money after a sale. In other cases, homeowners may simply be hoping that house prices will continue to rise, allowing them to recover lost equity.
A Rising Share of Young Adults Live in Their Parents’ Home - A Record 21.6 Million In 2012
Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan source of data analysis. It does not take advocacy positions. Its Social & Demographic Trends project studies behaviors and attitudes of Americans in key realms of their lives, including family, community, finance, work and identity. All of the Social & Demographic Trends project reports are available at www.pewsocialtrends.org. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts.
IMF Country Report No. 13/237 UNITED STATES 2012 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION
This "Selected Issues paper for the United States" was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 10, 2013. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of United States or the Executive Board of the IMF.
Transcript of a Conference Call on USA Article IV Consultation
Mr. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti who’s the IMF Mission Chief for the U.S.A. and Deputy Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere department and Mr. Roberto Cardarelli who’s the Division Chief of the IMF’s North American Division in the same department take questions on the prospects for the USA economy.
Charlie Rose - Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson on his book “The Great Degeneration” - which looks at the degeneration of great institutions of the developed world.
Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times - Philadelphia Fed
The Federal Reserve has taken bold steps this past year, both in the approaches to stimulate the economy and the way it talks about policy. The Fed's initiatives are working, and represent the best course to move toward maximum employment and price stability. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Semiconductor Materials and Equipment International (SEMI) 2013 Industry Strategy Symposium, in Half Moon Bay, California, on January 14, 2013.
Can We End Too Big to Fail? - Philadelphia Fed
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 4th Annual Simon New York City Conference, Reform at a Crossroads: Economic Transformation in the Year Ahead.
Charlie Rose - Jeremy Grantham
In this interview, Charlie Rose talks to Jeremy Grantham who is a British investor and Co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO).
U.S. Economic Mobility: The Dream and the Data
In thisEconomic Letter from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco authors Leila Bengali and Mary C. Daly examine whether financial data supports the thesis of the "American Dream". Economic mobility is a core principle of the American narrative and the basis for the American Dream. However, research suggests that the United States may not be as mobile as Americans believe. The United States has high absolute mobility in the sense that children readily become richer than their parents. But the nation appears to fall short on relative mobility, which is the ability of children to change their rank in the income distribution relative to their parents.
Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey
In this IMF Working Paper,from February 2013, author Anna Scherbina asks why asset price bubbles continue to appear in various markets? Her paper provides an overview of recent literature on bubbles, with significant attention given to behavioral models and rational models with frictions. Unlike the standard rational models, the new literature is able to model the common characteristics of historical bubble episodes and offer insights for how bubbles are initiated and sustained, the reasons they burst, and why arbitrage forces do not routinely step in to squash them. The latest U.S. real estate bubble is described in the context of this literature.
In this IMF Working Paper,from February 2013, authors Hideaki Hirata, M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok and Marco E. Terrones examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. They ask two specific questions:
1.) How synchronized are housing cycles across these countries?
2.) What are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices?
To address these questions, they first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. They then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. They find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.
The Fiscal Cliff and the Art of Negotiating
In this KQED "forum" program Joshua Johnson looks at what was in the deal and how it may set up future political battles over how America spends its money. From his interviewees, including David Wessel, economics editor for The Wall Street Journal, Heidi Przybla, congressional reporter for Bloomberg News, Jerry Nickelsburg, adjunct professor of economics at UCLA's Anderson School of Management and senior economist, and Robert Mnookin, director of the Harvard Negotiation Research Project, he gets insights on what the deal teaches us about about the art of negotiation.
Stockmarket prospects for 2013
The BBC WorldService BizDaily's Lesley Curwen talks to leading British investor Anthony Bolton, of Fidelity Worldwide Investments about prospects for global stockmarkets in 2013 and his China Special Situations Fund.
Plus, Phil Mercer reports on Western Australia's controversial sovereign wealth fund, set up to salt away mining wealth.
And Lucy Kellaway of the Financial Times suggests that finding the right job is eerily similar to choosing the perfect life partner.
Household and Business Balance Sheets
This section of the September 2012 Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review provides a detailed snapshot of the health of the Australian household and business sectors.
Charlie Rose - Warren Buffett and Carol Loomis
Charlie Rose interview with investment guru Warren Buffett and Fortune Magazine journalist Carol Loomis, discussing her latest book on Warren Buffett "Tap Dancing to Work. The internview touches on wideraging topics from tax on the rich, the potential fiscal cliff, how Carol Loomis and Warren Buffett got to know each other and the role Carol Loomis played in the legendary annual report commentary Warren Buffett writes for investors in Berkshire Hathaway. Particularly interesting is the section starting ~18:00 minutes into the interview, where Carol Loomis makes some salient observations about Warren's abilities and approach to investment.
BBC - Business Daily - Warren Buffett
BBC - 28 November 2012: Warren Buffett is reckoned to be the most successful investor of all time. He bought the first shares in Berkshire Hathaway - the company that was to become the vehicle for his investment empire - back in 1962 for $7.60. Now a single share in Berkshire Hathaway will cost you $132,778.
Mr Buffett and his biographer Carol Loomis spoke to American Public Radio's Kai Ryssdal about his investment success and the state of the global economy (first 10:00 min. of recording).
The Outlook for Dwelling Investment
In this address to the Australian Business Economists on 13 November 2012, the RBA's Jonathan Kearns (Head of Economic Analysis) examines the prospects of dwelling investment in Australia. Given its strong impact on the overall economy, dwelling investment is a key economic indicator and there are many pointers suggesting that there is a significant level of pent up demand for new dwelling investment in Australia. While timing and amplitude of this are uncertain, it adds to the more favourable backdrop for the Australian econopmy when compared to most other developed economies.
The contemporary China resources boom
In this article from "The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics", author Professor Ross Garnaut examines the impact on commodity prices from the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. While the faster than anticipated growth has led to a sharp increase in commodity prices, Garnot warns that eventually supply will catch up and resource intensity will moderate. He also touches on what this means to the Australian economy and warns that as the world has finite resources, eventually tehre needs to be a policy response to break the nexus between economic growth and pressure on the environment.
Economic Outlook and the Limits of Monetary Policy
Remarks made by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to the Southern Chester County Chamber of Commerce on
October 11, 2012. In this speech Plosser highlights his often contrarian view to official Fed policy, and concludes his discussion with an apt quote by his former teacher and Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman:
“….we are in danger of assigning to monetary policy a larger role than it can perform, in danger of asking it to accomplish tasks that it cannot achieve, and, as a result, in danger of preventing it from making the contribution that it is capable of making.”
Implications for the Australian Economy of Strong Growth in Asia
This paper was prepared by the BRA's Michael Plumb, Christopher Kent and James Bishop for the "Structural Change and the Rise of Asia" Conference, jointly hosted by the International Monetary Fund, the Australian Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia in Canberra. It analyses the performance of the Australian economy in the context of Asian growth and paints a positive picture of Australia's economic growth prospects as a lot of the capital investment in the resource sector leads to higher levels of mining production over the coming years. However, it also warns that eventually Australia needs to take advantage of its close proximity to Asia and provide more services to the region as the resource boom fades.
Australia and the Millennium Mining Boom
Remarks made by Professor Quentin Grafton, Executive Director/Chief Economist of the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), at the Australian National Conference on Resources and Energy (ANCRE) 2012 18 September 2012 Canberra, Australia. The presentation considers where Australia has come over the past decade of the current resources boom, and where we might be going in the years to come.
Economic Outlook for Australian Resources: Prices, Investments and Volumes
Presentation by Professor Quentin Grafton, Executive Director/Chief Economist, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), to the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC), on 4 September 2012.
Resources Commodities Boom: Past and Future Perspectives
A presentation by Professor Quentin Grafton, Executive Director/Chief Economist of the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), at the Economic Club of Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 21 February 2012. The presentation highlights some similarities between the Australian and Canadian economies and the charts can also be considered in the context of the above article "Australia and the Millennium Mining Boom".
These remarks by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada discuss whether the current resources boom is a blessing or a curse for the broader Canadian economy. Given similarities between Canada and Australia, the insights are relevant in the context of the "two speed economy" discussion here in Australia.
The Commodity Prices Boom/Bust
This BBC Podcast from 31 August 2012 asks if the boom in commodity prices over? Or does Asian economic growth mean it still has further to go?
Inside Business: The Iron Ore Price - An interview with Mike Young
In this ABC Inside Business interview from 9th September 2012 Alan Kohler discusses with BC Iron Managing Director Mike Young the sudden change in mood in global iron ore markets as the lower iron ore spot price has foced Fortesue Metals Group to deferr expansion plans, sell assets and cut its workforce.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke: At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
In this much anticipated speech from 31 August 2012, Ben S. Bernanke leaves open the possibility of a third round of quantitative easing in order to stimulate the American economy.
Just add Cash
In this two-part BBC WorldService podcast program, financial journalist and broadcaster Max Flint looks at both the negative and positive aspects of inflation.
His program investigates the negatives of inflation using the lessons of history by revisiting its bad reputation, in different parts of the world.
In this second program Max Flint investigates the positives of inflation. He looks at how inflation can shrink mortgages, shrivel debt, create growth and disposable income.
Reith Lectures - The Rule of Law and Its Enemies
The economic historian Professor Niall Ferguson presents the 2012 BBC Reith Lectures, titled "The Rule of Law and Its Enemies". Across four programmes he explores the role of man-made institutions on global economic growth and democracy, referencing the global economic crisis and financial regulation, as well as the Arab Spring.
For more Reith Lectures, go to the Reith lectures Homepage at:
Charlie Rose - Timothy Geithner, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
In this interview with Charlie Rose, Timothy Geithner attempts to explain what the Obama administration is doing to stimulate growth ofhe stalling USA economy.
Economic Letter - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the Great Recession, research has sought to understand the behavior of house prices. A feature of all bubbles is the emergence of seemingly plausible fundamental arguments that attempt to justify the dramatic run-up in prices. Comparing the U.S. housing boom of the mid-2000s with ongoing Norwegian housing market trends again poses the question of whether a bubble can be distinguished from a rational response to fundamentals. Survey evidence on expectations about house prices can be useful for diagnosing a bubble. The above is analysed in this Economic Letter from 25th June 2012, by Marius Jurgilas and Kevin J. Lansing.
Economist Paul Krugman on Germany's 'Whips and Scourges'
This Selected Issues paper for the United States was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 10, 2013. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of United States or the Executive Board of the IMF.
International Monetary Fund Country Report No. 12/132: New Zealand
The staff report for the 2012 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on April 2, 2012, with the officials of New Zealand on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on May 21, 2012. The views expressed in the staff report are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of the IMF.
Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2007 to 2010: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
The Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) for 2010 provides insights into changes in family income and net worth since the 2007 survey. The survey shows that, over the 2007–10 period, the median value of real (inflation-adjusted) family income before taxes fell 7.7 percent; median income had also fallen slightly in the preceding three-year period. The decline in median income was widespread across demographic groups, with only a few groups experiencing stable or rising incomes.
George Soros: Remarks at the Festival of Economics, Trento Italy
In this speech, famous hedge fund manager George Soros provides a fascinating, if somewhat unconventional insight into the European financial crisis.
The Myth of Japan’s Failure
In this "New York Times" article by Eamonn Fingleton, he notes that despite some small signs of optimism about the United States economy, unemployment is still high, and the country seems stalled. Time and again, Americans are told to look to Japan as a warning of what the country might become if the right path is not followed, although there is intense disagreement about what that path might be. Here, for instance, is how the CNN analyst David Gergen has described Japan: “It’s now a very demoralized country and it has really been set back.” But that presentation of Japan is a myth. By many measures, the Japanese economy has done very well during the so-called lost decades, which started with a stock market crash in January 1990. By some of the most important measures, it has done a lot better than the United States. Japan has succeeded in delivering an increasingly affluent lifestyle to its people despite the financial crash. In the fullness of time, it is likely that this era will be viewed as an outstanding success story.
Former Treasury Head slams Euro and sees Aussie boon
In this ABC Lateline program Chris Uhlman explores why Dr. Ken Henry, who has run Treasury, sat on the Reserve Bank Board and has just been appointed as Executive Chair of the Institute of Public Policy, believes the Euro was compromised at birth and its failure could see an investment surge in Australia.
The Slow Recovery: Causes and Monetary Policy Implications http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2012/john-williams-0503.pdf
In remarks given at the Institute for New Economic Thinking in Berlin on 14 April 2012, Andrew Haldane – Executive Director for Financial Stability and member of the Financial Policy Committee of teh Bank of England – argues that structural features of the financial system can make it prone to arms-race-type behaviour. He argues that macro-prudential policy intervention to constrain this behaviour can create healthier outcomes for the financial system as a whole.
Peter Day: Two Views of Japan http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/radio/worldbiz/worldbiz_20120414-0030a.mp3
The last twenty years in Japan look to have been abject grey economic failure. It seems that successive attempts to restart he economy have not worked. But if you look around Tokyo it's a country that still appears very rich. So what is going on here? In this BBC GlobalBiz program from 14 April 12, Peter Day attempts to find out by hearing two contrasting views of Japan. Noriko Hama is Economics professor at Doshisha University, Kyoto and very pessimistic on the plight of Japan, but Eamonn Fingleton Tokyo based author, is writing a book on why Japan is much better off than it seems. Producer: Richard Berenger Editor: Stephen Chilcott.
Bangladesh's ready-made garments landscape: The challenge of growth Bangladesh Report
This McKinsey & Company case study looks at the changing sourcing strategies of US and European companies, as margin and suppier capacity pressures are building elsewhere. Bangladesh is emerging as an attractive alternate or supplementary suplier to China. However, Bangladesh has its own challenges which are highlighted in this insightful report.
This is a Dean’s lecture given by Martin Weale, External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England, at Cass Business School, London, Wednesday 29 February 2012.
Charlie Rose interview with Jim O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management on his new book "The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond".
For decades the West lectured the East on how to manage their economies. Well, now the shoe is on the other foot. Emerging Asia is the model of steady, consistent economic policy and sustained growth; while America, Europe and Japan are mired in debt and slow growth or even recession. Malaysia's former Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamed, has some home truths for Western economies. During his two decades in power he helped transform Malaysia from a sleepy former colony into an economic tiger. Justin Rowlatt asks him why he believes Asia has managed to weather the financial storm so much better than its western rivals.
Bank of Canada’s Governor Mark Carney participated in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting – 28 January 2012.
This update of the key World Economic Outlook projections from 24th January 2012, forecasts more moderate growth for the world. Earlier projections of 4.0% growth in global output for 2012 is reduced to 3.25%. This is on the back of a mild recession in the euro area economy due to the rise in sovereign yields, the effects of bank deleveraging on the real economy, and the impact of additional fiscal consolidation.
In this January 2012 speech US Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth A. Duke, she shares her views and insights on the prospects of an economic recovery in the USA.
The Year in News 2011
Coverage of Economy and International News Jump in a Year of Major Breaking Stories. The faltering U.S. economy was the No. 1 story in the American news media in 2011, with coverage increasing substantially from a year earlier when economic unease helped alter the political landscape in the midterm elections, according to The Year in the News 2011, a new report conducted by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
Charlie Rose: Niall Ferguson of Harvard University on his book “Civilization: The West and the Rest”
Charlie Rose interview with British historian of modern imperialism, Niall Ferguson. Ferguson is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University, a Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. Ferguson is best known for his book ‘The Pity of War’ (1998) and he is also the author of ‘The War of the World’ (2006).
Asset Price Booms and Current Account Deficits
In this Economic Letter from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco by Paul Bergin, he analyses how before the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, the United States and several other countries posted large current account deficits. Many of these countries also experienced asset price booms. Evidence suggests the two developments were linked. Rising asset values in the United States permitted households to borrow more easily to boost consumption, while the net sale of debt securities abroad financed current account deficits. The fall in some asset prices since the crisis can make it easier to reduce current account imbalances.
BBC - Business Daily - BRICs - 4 Russia
Should Russia be a BRIC?
The country is a leading global supplier of oil, gas and metals. But is it too dependent on those volatile commodity markets? In this last Business Daily broadcast on BRICs, Andrew Walker speaks to Igor Yurgens, an adviser to the current President Dmitry Medvedev. But Russia is a challenging place to work. The World Bank ranks it 120 out of 183 in its survey on the ease of doing business. Still, many Russians are immersing themselves in the cold waters of business. Peter van Dyk braves the freezing temperatures of Asbest, a town in the Ural mountains, to meet some of Russia's entrepreneurs.
BBC - Business Daily - BRICs - 3 Brazil
How Brazil has transformed itself from a Latin American also-ran into a dynamic modern economy.
In this third Business Daily broadcast in the series, Justin Rowlatt puts the B into BRICs, exploring the incredible renaissance of Brazil. He travels to the edge of the Amazon to visit one of the most efficient farms on the planet and interviews its owner, Blairo Maggi, the man they call "The King of Soya". Senator Maggi describes how Brazil pioneered super-efficient agriculture and the challenges of developing the country's manufacturing industry in the face of competition from fellow BRIC, China. Brazil isn't just an agricultural power, it also has vast reserves of iron ore and other minerals. The icing on the cake was the recent discovery of oil - tens of billions of barrels of the stuff. Brazil's vast oil reserves have transformed the fortunes of the country and the national oil company, Petrobras. Justin Rowlatt asks Petrobras chief executive, Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, if he believed the Brics designation means anything. And in a rainy Brasilia, Justin Rowlatt meets up with a lynch-pin of Brazil's trade with China, Charles Tang. Mr Tang is the chairman of the Brazil China Chamber of Commerce. He argues that the BRIC nations have different strengths and weaknesses but do have various interests in common.
BBC - Business Daily - BRICs - 2 China
Can China save the world's economy?
That is the question posed in this BBC Business Daily broadcast. The country has seen incredible growth in the past decade but is it the economic powerhouse that could save the world? In the second of the BBC's week of programmes looking at the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, China and India) Damian Grammaticus is in Beijing. He speaks to Professor Li Daokui, an economist who serves as a policy adviser to the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, who says that while China's growth has been exceptional, the country needs to focus on reform in the coming years. Plus he asks Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University, where the idea of China being able to save the world comes from. And Michael Bristow visits the village of Yihezhuang, one of China's poorest villages.
BBC - Business Daily - BRICs - 1 India
What are the challenges of bringing together rich India and poor India?
That is the question posed in this BBC Business Daily broadcast. In the first of a week of programmes from the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) Nidhi Dutt reports from Mumbai on how the Indian nation is transforming itself into a powerful 21st Century economy. And what are the benefits of being a Bric? We hear from K V Kamath Chairman of Infosys Ltd, India's second largest software company and Adi Godrej, Chairman of Godrej Group one of India's most trusted brands. Plus Shilpa Khanon speaks to Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the deputy chairman of India's planning commission.
GlobalBiz: Argentina - Ten Years On: 12 Nov 11
Nine years ago Peter Day visited Argentina at its lowest economic ebb. It had defaulted on its overseas debts. The country was in chaos with rampant unemployment and the banks had closed their doors to their customers. But today things appear better as a commodities boom raises Argentina’s boat. It was a crisis similar in many ways to the one now swamping parts of Europe – so Global Business asks whether Argentina has any lessons for the likes of Greece and Italy. Producer: Richard Berenger Editor: Stephen Chilcott
Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies - Bank of Japan - Discussion Paper Series 2011-E-27 by Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, and Francesco Trebbi.
A central idea in macroeconomic theory is that negative price effects from the leverage-induced forced sale of durable goods can amplify negative shocks and reduce economic activity. The autors examine this idea by estimating the effect of U.S. foreclosures in 2008 and 2009 on house prices, residential investment, and durable consumption. They show that states that require judicial process for a foreclosure sale have significantly lower rates of foreclosures relative to states that have no such requirement. Using state laws requiring a judicial foreclosure as an instrument for actual foreclosures, as well as a regression discontinuity design around state borders with differing foreclosure laws, they show that foreclosures have a large negative impact on house prices. Foreclosures also lead to a significant decline in residential investment and durable consumption. The magnitudes of the effects are large, suggesting that foreclosures have been an important factor in weak house price, residential investment, and durable consumption patterns during and after the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009.
Analysis of the Republican Debate and President Obama's Jobs Speech
Acclaimed interviewer and broadcast journalist Charlie Rose engages Americas best thinkers, writers, politicians, athletes, entertainers, business leaders, scientists and other newsmakers in one-on-one interviews and roundtable discussions. This September 8th 2011 episode provides an analysis of the Republican Debate and President Obama's Jobs Speech with Andy Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union, John Heilemann of 'New York Magazine,' Nia-Malika Henderson of 'The Washington Post,' Carl Schramm, President and CEO of the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University & Mark Halperin, senior political analyst for Time magazine.
InBiz: Prize Performers
At a time of grave crisis, some of the world's top Nobel Prize winning economists have been meeting for a conference on an idyllic Bavarian island. The BBC's Peter Day was there to find out if they had any ideas about how to get out of the mess we're in and what their predictions are for the future. Producer: Neil Koenig Editor: Stephen Chilcott
Market Phoenixes and Banking Ducks Are Recoveries Faster in Market-Based Financial Systems?
In this 2011 International Monetary Fund working paper by Julien Allard and Rodolphe Blavy notes that recoveries vary considerably across countries: this IMF paper compares recoveries in bank-based and market-based economies and finds that market-based economies experience significantly and durably stronger rebounds than the bank-based ones (in particular the more bank-based economies of continental Europe). Further, stronger recoveries also tend to be associated with broader economic flexibility. IMF findings suggest that dealing with bank sector vulnerabilities is paramount to support the recovery. In the medium term, structural policies to deepen financial markets are useful, but need to be complemented with structural measures to address rigidities more broadly in the real economy.
When Will Residential Construction Rebound?
In this Economic Letter (2011-23, 7/25/2011) from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, William Hedberg and John Krainer write that over the past several years, U.S. housing starts have dropped to around 400,000 units at an annualized rate, the lowest level in decades. A simple model of housing supply that takes into account residential mortgage foreclosures suggests that housing starts will return to their long-run average by about 2014 if house prices first stabilize and then begin appreciating, and the bloated inventory of foreclosed properties declines.
What does Hair Cutting have in Common with Financial System Liquidity Management?
Here Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability and member of the Financial Policy Committee from the Bank of England helps connect the dots.
The Role of the State
In this 1966 Reith Lecture entitled 'The Role of the State', Professor John Kenneth Galbraith explores the relationship states have with large Corporations. He argues that the state and private industry are moving closer together and warns there is a danger that the state could become too involved with industry, and consequently policies could be influenced by these corporations.
US Economy - The Vigilante
This 2011 "The Atlantic" article explores Bill Gross' (founder and co–chief investment officer of PIMCO) thinking on US Treasury Bonds, and why he has been not only a seller, but placing active bets against them.
Canada in a Multi-Polar World
In this 2011 Bank of Canada speech, by Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney he discusses the change in global market dynamics with emerging nations accounting for nearly three quarters of global economic growth. The emerging economies stand in stark contrast to the weakened position of the advanced economies and this is impacting on monetary policy in Canada and Australia.
New Zealand - IMF Country Report
The Big Fish Small Pond Problem
In this 2011 speech by Economist and Executive Director - Financial Stability, Bank of England, Andrew G. Haldane discusses the potential problems being created by developed nations (the "Big Fish") investing too much money in emerging economies (the "Small Pond"), thereby creating asset price bubbles in those countries. This issue has led to changing attitudes to once frowned upon market interventions by the emerging economy governments.
Tailwinds and Headwinds: How Does Growth in the BRICs Affect Inflation in the G7?
In this 2011 Bank of England working paper, Anna Lipinska (Economist at the Monetary Analysis, Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division),and co-author Stephen Millard (Senior Economist at the Monetary Analysis, Structural Economic Analysis Division), suggest that at least initially and under certain monetary policy settings, and oil production assumptions, the G7 nations enjoy more of an inflationary tailwind (i.e. lower inflation) rather than a headwind (i.e. higher inflation from having inflation exported from the BRIC economies).
How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?
In this 2011 International Monetary Fund working paper, Professor of International Finance Policy, University of Amsterdam and Assistant Director/Division Chief, Financial Studies, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Stijn Claessens et al. find that strong linkages exist between different phases of business and financial cycles. This is particularly true for recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, especially house price busts, these recessions tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions.
In the 2011 International Monetary Fund working paper, Economist at the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF, James P. Walsh recommends that in setting monetary policy - especially in poorer nations where food is a larger part of the consumption basket - it is unwise to exclude food inflation from core inflation measures as is widespread practice, due to volatility in food prices.
The Paradigm Shifts: Global Imbalances, Policy, and Latin America
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/sp260311.pdf In this 2011 Bank of Canada speech to the Inter-American Development Bank, Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney examines how both commodity price fluctuations and capital flows are leading to global imbalances with particular focus on Latin America.
Let it Grow: How Monetary Policy can Support Sustainable Economic Growth
In this 2011 Bank of England speech by Economist and External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England from October 2006 to May 2011, Andrew Sentance again makes the case for a tightening in interest rates to keep the inflation genie tightly in the bottle.
In this 2011 International Monetary Fund working paper, Economist at International Monetary Fund, Pritha Mitra examines the different impact capital flows have on GDP, depending on which sectors they are directed. Not surprisingly, capital flows directed at real estate have the most significant impact on GDP, suggesting that investments in education and infrastructure in emerging nations could lead to less volatile GDP growth.
Recent Surge in Global Commodity Prices
In this 2011 Bank of Japan Review by Economist of the International Department at the Bank of Japan, Yasunari Inamura et al. looks at various factors that have led to resurgent commodity prices since 2009.
Modelling Inflation in Chad
In this 2011 International Monetary Fund working paper, Economist and former Consultant, Middle East and North Africa Department at The World Bank, Tidiane Kinda examines what factors most influenced inflation in Chad. This study provides a valuable insight into inflationary cost pressures in emerging economies - many of which are involved in manufacturing for developed nations.
In this 2011 Bank of Canada working paper, Economist and Principal Researcher, Canadian Economic Analysis Department, Bank of Canada, Oleksiy Kryvtsov and co-author, Economist and Assistant Professor of Economics, New York University, Virgiliu Midrigan examine how inventory levels and the cost of production responds to monetary policy shocks in the context of the Canadian economy. We think that some of the similarities between the Canadian and the Australian economy make this article all the more relevant.
Patchwork Nation: Census Raises Questions About Detroit's Future
Ten Good Reasons to Tighten
In this 2011 Bank of England speech by Economist and External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England from October 2006 to May 2011, Andrew Sentance provides a fascinating insight into differences in opinion about monetary policy within the Monetary Policy Committee and provides his arguments for an early monetary tightening.
The Progress of Recovery and Challanges for Policymakers
In this 2011 speech, former Economics Professor and President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Charles I. Plosser provides his thoughts on the economic recovery of the USA in the context of his voting tenure on the Federal Open Market Committee.
Household Finances and Economic Growth
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/sp100111.pdf In this speech by Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, Agathe Côté she discusses household finances, which account for around 60% of aggregate demand in Canada. She discusses how monetary policy - amongst other factors - is framed by giving appropriate consideration to the state of household finances in a post Global Financial Crisis economic landscape.
Investment Objectives of Sovereign Wealth Funds - A Shifting Paradigm
In this 2011 International Monetary Fund working paper, Senior Economist at International Monetary Fund, Peter Kunzel et al. examine the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on asset allocations and investment strategies of sovereign wealth funds and the stabilising influence they have in the global economy due to their longer-term investment strategies relative to most other investors.
In this 2011 NPR KQED Radio program, Jared Diamond - author of Guns, Germs and Steel - talks about Haiti and the Dominican Republic and why neighbors on the same island developed along very different paths. A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?
In this 2011 International Monetary Fund working paper, Economists Serhan Cevic and Tahsin Saddi Sedik examine two very different commodities, but find that in each instance, it is the growth in aggregate demand that drives commodity prices rises rather than supply constraints. With most incremental growth for commodities driven by emerging nations, their demand will have a greater significance in determining price fluctuations.
This document by the Fraser Institute provides a detailed review of the extent to which various economies around the world allow personal choice, voluntary exchange, freedom to compete and security of privately owned property. A useful reference, as a global marketplace sees more and more companies dealing in overseas markets with sovereign risk often not well understood by investors.
Global Imbalances in Retrospect and Prospect
In this 2010 speech by Economist and Executive Director - Financial Stability, Bank of England, Andrew G. Haldane provides proof for what many of us have always suspected, and that is that financial markets and public policy are becoming too short-term focussed.
What Drives House Prices in Australia? A Cross-Country Approach
In this 2010 International Monetary Fund working paper, Senior Economist in the Asia and Pacific Department of the International Monetary Fund, Patrizia Tumbarello and co-author, Economist at International Monetary Fund, Shengzu Wang look at the Australian housing market and find that it might be overvalued by only 5% to 10% and that any price correction is likely to be orderly given broader financial stability of the banking system. However, high indebtedness of households and deleveraging in combination with a fall in house prices could negatively impact household spending.
Do We Know What We Need to Know to Lean Against the Wind?
In this 2010 speech by US Economist and External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, Adam S. Posen, he examines whether or not a policy response of tightening monetary policy pre-emptively can prevent or pop asset bubbles - that is to lean against the wind. His findings are startling...
After the Recession: Thoughts on the Growth Potential of the United Kingdom
In this 2010 Bank of England speech by former Economics lecturer at Cambridge University and Monetary Policy Committee, Martin Weale discusses to what extent the Global Financial Crisis has crimped the growth potential of the United Kingdom economy and to what extent monetary policy can be used to stimulate the economy without pushing up inflation.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2010/speech447.pdf In this 2010 Bank of England speech by Executive Director, Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) - Deputy CEO designate, Andrew Bailey discusses the need for on-going financial reform - indeed he talks about the transition over a two year time frame to a new system of financial regulation in the UK - in order to re-establish financial stability.
Global Imbalances in Retrospect and Prospect
In this 2010 speech by Economist and Executive Director - Financial Stability, Bank of England, Andrew G. Haldane considers past and future current account balances, capital flows and savings rates, highlighting some dramatic changes.
Indonesia: Selected Issues - IMF Country Report
This 2010 selected issues paper for Indonesia was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund. Various issues relating to the Indonesian economy are discussed, providing a good snapshot of the economic situation of this important neighbour nation.
How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America
In this 2010 "The Atlantic" article, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, Author and Deputy Managing Editor of The Atlantic Magazine, Don Peck considers the social, economic, and cultural implications of long term unemployment on the USA Society.
Is private equity misleading investors?
This 2010 BBC World Service - Business Daily program is about the fierce new debate that has been stirred up about private equity, an industry which buys up under-performing companies to run them better and sell them on again at a profit. Questions have been raised about whether private equity firms are actually making as much money for their investors as they claim. They come in a controversial report from the British think-tank, the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation. Its author, former banker Peter Morris, explains his concerns about the size of private equity fees, and the way that financial returns are expressed. Lesley Curwen puts these concerns to private equity boss, Jon Moulton, who is the chairman of Better Capital. He agrees that some members of the industry have "over-stated their case" and says "private equity is struggling to show that it's a really seriously superior activity."
Interpreting the World Trade Collapse
In this 2010 quarterly bulletin from the Bank of England's International Advisory Division, Silvia Domit and Tamarah Shakir examine why from the end of 2008 world trade collapsed at a faster rate than GDP and why it subsequently recovered much faster, by focussing on UK export demand.
The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy
In this 2010 International Monetary Fund working paper, Economist and Assistant Director and chief of the Development Macroeconomics Division in the IMF’s Research Department, Andrew Berg et al. examine the effects of "aid surges" on interest rates, exchange rates and inflation, where the aid is added to the central bank's reserves rather than immediately absorbed into the economy. The recent experience of Uganda provided the real life example of what can happen. Interestingly, in their conclusion, the authors note that their findings might be applicable to the macroeconomics of natural resources booms in low-income countries...
Countering the Cycle—The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Korea
In this 2009 International Monetary Fund working paper, HSBC Chief Economist for India and ASEAN, Leif Lybecker Eskesen examines how effective the decisive and proactive fiscal measures of the Korean authorities were in stemming the fallout of the Global Financial Crisis, especially in the context of the high openness of Korea's economy.
Optimal Monetary Policy During Endogenous Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles
This 2009 Bank of Canada working paper by Hajime Tomura from the Bank of Canada considers how monetary policy can be optimised to stabilise output and inflation in an environment where endogenous boom-bust cycles in house prices can occur.
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market - Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy
This 2009 Bank of Canada working paper by Hajime Tomura from the Bank of Canada examines the co-existence of optimistic credit-constrained borrowers and pessimistic savers who respectively take and provide mortgage loans and generate expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in house prices.
Monetary Policy in Turbulent Times
In this 2009 speech, Economist and External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England from October 2006 to May 2011, Andrew Sentance outlines the factors that shook the UK economy during the Global Financial Crisis and what monetary policy is now most appropriate to navigate the recovery.
Globalization: The Concept, Causes, and Consequences
In this 1998 speech, Chief Economist for the South Asia Region at the World Bank, John Williamson explains why he believes that globalisation is technology driven and therefore here to stay. He goes on to discuss political consequences and social implications that need to be considered in the context of globalisation of the world economy.
In this interview, Economist Tyler Cowen discusses some of the ideas from his recently published book "The Great Stagnation: Why Hasn't Recent Technology Created More Jobs?", in which he challenges commonly held beliefs about technological progress and jobs.