A Tale of Transition : An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China, 1986–2009
This paper is the first comprehensive empirical study of earnings, income, and consumption inequality in urban China from 1986 to 2009, using unique micro-level data from the Urban Household Survey (UHS). The paper documents a drastic increase in economic inequality for the sample period. The paper finds that consumption inequality closely tracks income inequality, both over time and over the life cycle. The paper believes that the main driver of this co-movement could be a dramatic increase in noninsurable idiosyncratic permanent income shocks after the early 1990s, associated with the economic transition in urban China.
When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?
This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding is that the impact of China growth shocks on ASEAN has risen since the global financial crisis. A one percent decline in China’s growth implies a 0.3 percent reduction in growth for ASEAN EMEs and 0.2 for FDEs. An important component of inflation is also shared between ASEAN and China. These magnitudes are double what they were two decades ago due to stronger trade and financial linkages. Finally, a slowdown in China, while having real effects, also has a financial impact via slower credit growth and lower equity prices. This is in line with the existence of both portfolio balance and signaling channels, in which ASEAN market participants absorb news on China economic activity as an indicator over domestic growth prospects.
Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy
China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.
China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown
Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.
Chinese Imports : What’s Behind the Slowdown?
Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period. Weaker exports also account for about 40 percent of slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB. Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods. There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.
Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World
This RBA conference had three main sections: First, a focus on China and the changes taking place there; second, investigating the likely effects of these changes on global commodity and financial markets; and third, examining the likely effects of these changes on the global economy.
Is China's Growth Miracle Over?
The recent slowdown in China’s growth has caused concern about its long-term growth prospects. Evidence suggests that, before 2008, China’s growth miracle was driven primarily by productivity improvement following economic policy reforms. Since 2008, however, growth has become more dependent on investment and overall growth has slowed. If the recent reform plans can successfully address the country’s structural imbalances, China could maintain a solid growth rate that might help smooth its transition to high-income status.
Chairman Mao's Little Red Book
In 1966, the collected thoughts of China's communist leader became an unexpected best-seller around the world. A compendium of pithy advice and political instructions from Mao Zedong, it was soon to be found on student bookshelves everywhere.
Global Fallout from China's Industrial Slowdown
China’s demand for imports helps support the global economic recovery, so China’s recent economic slowdown has caused international concern. China’s slowdown is concentrated in the industrial sector, while its emerging service sector has shown much new strength. However, China’s service sector is relatively closed and relies only modestly on imports. Accordingly, service sector growth is unlikely to offset the adverse implications of a slowing China for global trade.
Seasonal Adjustment of Chinese Economic Statistics
China's growing importance in the global economy and significance as a source of demand for commodities produced by many countries, including Australia, has focused increasing attention on high-frequency Chinese macroeconomic data. Yet the signal from these data is often distorted by traditional holidays whose timing varies from year to year on the Gregorian calendar. This paper shows that seasonal adjustment procedures (such as the US Census Bureau's X-12-ARIMA and the Bank of Spain's SEATS) can assist in the timely interpretation of a range of commonly used Chinese macroeconomic indicators, including industrial production, trade, credit and inflation. In addition, it suggests a strategy to optimise the selection of moving holiday corrections that account for Chinese New Year, the Dragon Boat festival and the Mid-Autumn festival, prior to seasonal adjustment. It is argued that seasonal adjustment performed with this approach is preferable to simpler techniques.
The Great Wall of Money
Whether it's waterfront trophy homes or apartments off the plan, or even massive commercial developments, Chinese investment in our real estate has surged by more than 400 per cent in just five years, with as much as A$12 billion spent in the previous financial year alone. Property is now the number one Chinese investment in Australia. So who are these investors and what do they see in Australia? On this Four Corners episode you'll meet members of China's super rich, the new generation of global property investors who call Australia home.
KPMG Survey - Demystifying Chinese Investment in Australia: May 2015 update
In 2014 China became a global net foreign investor for the first time, with total outbound direct investment volume rising by around 11 percent to USD 120 billion. Although Australia maintained its standing as the second largest recipient country of aggregated global Chinese direct investment, behind the United States in first position, for the second consecutive year Chinese investment in Australia declined. This report by KPMG and The University of Sydney’s China Studies Centre analyses Chinese outbound direct investment into Australia in 2014, and includes a specialist contribution from Knight Frank, analysing the unprecedented increase in commercial real estate investment during the year.
IMF Working Paper No. 15/151: China’s Labor Market in the “New Normal”
As China implements reforms under the “new normal,” maintaining stability in the labor market is a priority. The country’s demography and labor dynamics are changing, after benefitting in past decades from ample cheap labor. So far, the labor market appears to be resilient, even as growth slows, driven in part by expansion of the services sector. Migrant flows and possible labor hoarding in overcapacity sectors may also help explain this. Yet, while the latter two factors help serve as shock absorbers— contributing to labor market stability in the short term—if they persist, they may delay the needed adjustment process, contributing to an inefficient allocation of resources and curtailing productivity gains. This paper quantifies to what extent structural trends and the reform pace affect employment growth under the new normal. Delays in reform implementation would weaken growth prospects in the medium term, running the risk that job creation will fall below policy targets, leading to labor market pressures in the future. In contrast, successful transition might require faster reforms, including in the overcapacity and state-owned enterprise sectors, supported by well targeted social safety nets.
IMF Working Paper No. 15/113: China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?
The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.
IMF Working Paper No. 15/72 - Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities
This paper documents and assesses the risk stemming from rising corporate indebtedness in China using a firm-level dataset of listed firms. It finds that while leverage on average is not high, there is a fat tail of highly leveraged firms accounting for a significant share of total corporate debt, mainly concentrated in the real estate and construction sector and state-owned enterprises in general.
China pushes ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiatives
The “One Belt, One Road” initiatives are popular topics during this year’s two sessions. Premier Li Keqiang stressed that the initiative is another way for China to open up. It is widely expected that more efforts will be made this year to boost connectivity and cooperation between countries along the routes.
Chinese president speaks in Berlin
Chinese president speaks in Berlin
How China Fooled The World
An investigation of the Chinese debt binge that's left economists holding their breath. What will be the impact on Australia?
Panasonic to pay China workers pollution compensation
Japanese electronics firm Panasonic has said it will pay its employees working in China a premium to compensate them for the country's high pollution.
Evolution in China
The BBC's World Affairs Editor John Simpson has been visiting and reporting on China for a quarter of a century and in this program he returns to Beijing to talk to activists, academics and artists who are openly questioning whether Chinese communism can survive.
Job Uncertainty and Chinese Household Savings
This Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economic letter by Zheng Liu considers that China’s household saving rate has risen substantially during the past two decades. Research suggests that increased job uncertainty following reforms and massive layoffs in state-owned enterprises during the late 1990s contributed significantly to the increase. Facing higher unemployment risks after the reforms, workers in state-owned enterprises have tended to save more as a precaution. A recent study estimates that precautionary saving driven by the reforms explains about a third of Chinese urban household wealth accumulation from 1995 to 2002.
IMF Working Paper No. WP/13/265 - Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth
This paper estimates the household income growth rates implied by food demand in a sample of urban Chinese households in 1993–2005. The author's estimates, based on Engel curves for food consumption, indicate an average per capita income growth of 6.8 percent per year in 1993–2005. This figure is slightly larger than the 5.9 percent per year obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. The authors attribute this discrepancy to a small bias in the CPI, which is of a similar magnitude to the one often associated with the CPI in the United States. Estimates indicate stronger gains among poorer households, suggesting that urban inflation up to 2005 in China was “pro-poor,” in the sense that the increase in the cost of living for poorer households was smaller than for the average one.
China issues detailed reform roadmap
The full text of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee's decision on major issues concerning comprehensively deepening reforms was issued Friday [15.11.2013], providing a roadmap for China's further development. The decision was approved at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee held from Nov. 9 to 12 in Beijing.
Peter Day - with Zhang Ruimin Haier Chairman / CEO
Zhang Ruimin transformed Haier from failing fridge manufacturer to one of the largest white goods companies in the world. He tells Peter Day how.
National Bureau of Statistics of China
A useful reference site for Chinese economic data.
What drives Chinese investment in Australia
Speech by Andrew Michelmore, Executive Director and CEO of MMG Limited to the Lowy Institute for International Policy 10th Anniversary „China Changing‟ Lecture – Beijing
China.org.cn : Li Keqiang expounds on urbanization
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, expounded his views on China's urbanization drive in an article published in Chinese in Qiushi semimonthly's fourth issue of 2012 on deepening the strategy of domestic demand expansion in the course of reform and opening-up when he was still Vice Premier of the State Council. The above link takes you to a translation of the excerpt of the article concerning the urbanization issue by He Shan and Chen Xia.
The Secret Behind China's Rapid Rise
When he first visited Beijing in 1975, Orville Schell noticed a country that lacked advertisements, private cars and private property. Today, China possesses the world's second largest economy. Schell, the director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society, and his co-author John Delury, a senior fellow at the Center, discuss how China rapidly climbed the global economic ladder in their new book, "Wealth and Power: China's Long March to the Twenty-First Century."
IMF Update: Country Report No. 13/21 - People's Republic of China
Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on May 29, 2013, with the officials of China on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on June 27, 2013. The views expressed in the staff report are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of the IMF.
Staff expect the economy to grow by 7¾ percent this year, although with downside risks from both external and domestic uncertainties. Since the global crisis, a mix of investment, credit, and fiscal stimulus has underpinned activity. This pattern of growth is not sustainable and is raising vulnerabilities. While China still has significant buffers to weather shocks, the margins of safety are diminishing.
Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions
Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization. This paper by Nathan Porter and TengTeng Xu investigates the main drivers of China’s interbank rates by developing a stylized theoretical model of China’s interbank market and estimating an EGARCH model for 7-day interbank repo rates. Their empirical findings suggest that movements in administered interest rates (part of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy toolkit) are important determinants of market-determined interbank rates, in both levels and volatility. The announcement effects of reserve requirement changes also influence interbank rates, as well as liquidity injections from open market operations in recent years. Their results indicate that the regulation of key retail interest rates influences the behaviour of market determined interbank rates, which may have limited their independence as price signals.
Further deposit rate liberalization should allow short-term interbank rates to play a more effective role as the primary indirect monetary policy tool.
After centuries of western dominance, the world’s centre of economic and political weight is shifting eastward. In just 30 years, China has risen from long-standing poverty to being the second largest economy in the world – faster than any other country in history. From angry farmers to weary migrant workers, powerful politicians and everyone in between, what China says and does, has become of undeniable importance to the entire world. Although no other country in history has risen so quickly from poverty to prosperity as China has, for many in the world's most populous nation, those advances have come at a price. The economic reforms that made the People's Republic's rise possible have also led to a harshly divided China. Divisions whose impacts could easily spread from disenfranchised individuals to threaten the economic growth contemporary Chinese society has come to be based upon. This four-part Al Jazeera special series considers some of these issues and their implications.
To Silence Discontent, Chinese Officials Alter Workweek
How do you prevent protests in China? Move the weekend. That's the Orwellian step taken by local authorities in the southwestern city of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province. May 4 is a sensitive date commemorating an influential student movement in 1919. It's especially potent in Chengdu, where it marks the fifth anniversary of a protest against the construction of a $6 billion crude oil refinery and petrochemical facility in Pengzhou, 25 miles away...
China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth: Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency
This IMF Working Paper proposes a possible framework for identifying excessive investment. It finds evidence that some types of investment are becoming excessive in China, particularly in inland provinces. By contrast, private consumption has become more self-sustaining in coastal provinces. If existing trends continue, risks of financial instability and asset bubbles could rise. Thus, investment should be shifted toward sectors with greater and more lasting spillovers to household income and consumption. In this context, investment in agriculture and services is found to be superior to that in manufacturing and real estate. Financial reform would facilitate such a reorientation, helping China to enhance capital efficiency and keep growth buoyant even as aggregate investment is lowered to sustainable levels.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: On the Reliability of Chinese Output Figures
On the Reliability of Chinese Output Figures-2013-03-25
Some commentators have questioned whether China’s economy slowed more in 2012 than official gross domestic product figures indicate. However, the 2012 reported output and industrial production figures are consistent both with alternative Chinese indicators of the country’s economic activity, such as electricity production, and trade volume measures reported by non-Chinese sources. These alternative domestic and foreign sources provide no evidence that China’s economic growth was slower than official data indicate.
Week In News: Responding To China's Pollution Problem
In this npr "All Things Considered" program from 9 March 2013, host Jacki Lyden speaks with regular contributor and The Atlantic national correspondent James Fallows in Shanghai, China, about all things China, including the country's response to the pollution problem and the hopes pinned to their new president...
The Spirit Of China's Sufi Shrines
This npr "the picture show" by Claire O'Neill shows a collection of pictures by photographer Lisa Ross, who in 2002 found herself far away from home — in the remote Taklamakan Desert of western China, in what is known as the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.
"I was looking for something," she says, but "I didn't know what I was looking for." ...
Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
This IMF Working Paper by Mitali Das and Papa N’Diaye from January 2013 discusses how China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. The central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios—with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity—may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.
Top Communist Party of China Leadership
This ChinaDaily feature contains profiles and related photos of the seven members of the Standing Committee of the 18th CPC Central Committee Political Bureau.
A Ningxia journey
This ChinaDaily feature from 18 December 2012 provides an intriguingly different angle on development in China. In the rural areas of Ningxia Hui autonomous region, success is defined by most people as the number of cisterns one owns. In the dry sandy area, as rain is the only source of water, the number of cisterns one has determines that person's social status in the village..
The new Silk Road
This Australia Network News feature from 18 December 2012 discusses how - as cross border trade starts to boom in central Asia - the likes of China and India as well as the ASEAN nations are all eyeing off a piece of the action, and in the process they're reviving the once famed silk road trading route.
Foreigners to get key rights
Foreigners to get key rights
This ChinaDaily article from 12 December 2012 notes that foreigners who obtain permanent residency will have the same pension, employment and property rights as Chinese citizens, under new regulations. This highlights the Chinese political leadership's recognition of the value of foreign skills to China's continuing growth and development.
Different Perspectives on the New Chinese Leadership
Charlie Rose: Leadership in China: with Ian Bremmer, James Fallows, and Richard McGregor ABC Lateline: Interview with Geremie Barme, Dir. of the Austr. Centre on China in the World at the ANU
New Chinese Leaders Affirm Nationalist Ideals Rather Than Reform | PBS NewsHour | Nov. 15, 2012
Australia Network - Asia Pacific Focus - China facing huge housing shortage
Food for 9 Billion: Satisfying China's Growing Demand for Meat
This PBS NewsHour program from 13 November 2012 highlights that as China's economy has grown, the way of life for many Chinese has changed, especially diet. Per capita, consumption of meat has quadrupled in China over the last 30 years. PRI's "The World" correspondent Mary Kay Magistad reports on how China is dealing with this growing demand.
Portraits of Rural Chinese Families Posing with Everything They Own
This Peta Pixel feature presents a fascinating snapshot in time of some parts of Chinese scociety.
As Economy Slows, China Looks For A New Model
In this npr feature from 31 October 2012, Frank Langfitt examines the need for China to transform itself from an inefficient central government run state into a more effricient and domestic demand driven modern economy.
China wants more than just resources: Mullinjer
In this ABC News "The Business" interview with presenter Ticky Fullerton, ChinSteve Mullinjer from Heidrick and Struggles discusses his first-hand experience of doing business in China, and Australian export opportunities outside natural resources.
IQ2 Debate: We've Nothing to Fear from a Powerful China
In this ABC BIG IDEAS IQ2 Debate from 15 October 2012, the proposition is ‘We’ve got nothing to fear from a powerful China’. The 21st century has been characterised as the 'Asian century' and the corollary of this is that we’re witnessing the decline of the United States as a global force. The Chinese economy is one of the few bright spots in a global economy – parts of which are in freefall and along with the boom, the country has been flexing it’s military muscle in the Asian region; but does this mean that a fear of China is justifiable? Or are such fears just a product of a very cautious western mindset?
Arguing that we have nothing to fear from a resurgent China is Joanne Wood, Founder and Chairman of capital Eight, an investment banking house based in Shanghai, and Dr Rizmal Sukma, Executive Director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Indonesia. Arguing that we do have reason to fear, or at least be cautious of the rise of China, is Dr John Lee, and expert on China’s political economy at the centre of International Security Studies at Sydney University, and Dr Michael Wesley, the Executive Director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy.
John Lee’s take is especially interesting, for in his assessment, a country that won’t tolerate dissent from it’s own people is more likely to behave in the same way to smaller or weaker powers. The audience poll produces a very interesting result. Simon Longstaff, from the St James Ethics Centre is the moderator.
Electricity consumption slows
This China Daily article from 18th October 2012 looks at China's electricity consumption. Electricity consumption is widely seen by economists as one of the most reliable indictors of a country's economic strength. While the rate of growth has slowed over recent months, the impact of sasonal factors and stimulus measures also has to be considered.
Charlie Rose interview with Thomas L. Friedman
The New York Times' and Pulitzer prize winner Thomas L. Friedman shares his insights into his latest visit to China. The interview touches on a wide range of issues from deep seated environmental concerns of young Chinese and uncertainty and insecurity created by the imminent change in leadership to global affairs and US election politics.
China’s productivity imperative
This Earnst & Young report analyses changes in China's manufacturing competitiveness and the need to improve productivity to remain so.
Higher productivity to counter rising labor costs
This China Daily article from 26 September 2012 refers to the above Earnst and Young report, which examines China's need to improve productivity, as the pool of available agricultural workers who provide "cheap" labout is drying up causing labour costs to escalate.
Textile margins wear thin
This China Daily article from 19 September 2012 highlights the impact on Chinese textile manufacturers, as the global textile industry shifts its sourcing from China to even lower cost producers in other parts of the world.
China's Political Business Cycle
This November 2011 research paper by Yinan (Leo) Li from the Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE10691,Sweden presents the evidence of political business cycles in Chinas key macro variables since the economic reform starting in 1977. He constructs a theory to explain the mechanism of the political cycle, incorporating the fundamental institutional features after the reform: economic decentralization, political centralization and central government intervention when necessary. An empirical test of the theory, using a panel of provincial level data, derives a result consistent with the predictions of the presented theory. Li also clearly de fines the China Mode of Growth.
Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040
This research discussion paper from September 2012, by Leon Berkelmans and Hao Wang from the Reserve Bank of Australia, projects Chinese urban residential construction out to 2040. The paper argues that the extraordinary growth of recent years will not continue, but that construction will stabilise at a high level. This augurs well for steel demand, especially as steel intensity is expected to increase. These projections are subject to upside and downside risks, which are discussed. In addition, this paper argues that official figures understate the extent of urban residential construction.
China's manufacturing activity slows to 9-month low
This article on the official Chinese Government website discusses how the Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) is now standing at 49.2%, the lowest elvel it has been for nine months and retreating anoher 0.9% from July.
'Big four' banks accelerate new loans
This China Daily article from 21 August 2012 notes that China's "big four" State-owned banks accelerated their pace of new loan issuance in August, which experts said reflected increased government concern over further economic slowdown. The "big four" — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd, China Construction Bank Corp, Bank of China Ltd and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd — extended 70 billion yuan ($11 billion) worth of yuan-denominated loans in the first half of August, a significant increase from the 50 billion yuan offered by the same stage last month.
Economic rebound lacks gas
This China Daily article from 11 August 2012 highlights clues to a slowing Chinese economy, with lending by China's bank for example slumping 41.3% in July from the previous month, the lowest monthly figure since September 2011. At the same time exports grew by only 1%, the lowest growth since 2009.
Australia’s China Resources Boom
In this paper Ross Garnaut discusses the economic implications of the resources boom Australia currently enjoys, which is driven by China's rapid economic growth.
In this June 2012 interview Charlie Rose discusses with journalist and author James Fallows his recently published book "China Airborne", in which James Fallows uses intriguing observations to draw conclusions about development in China.
In this speech at the Lowy Institute & Australia-China Council on 25 February 2010 Clinton Dines makes some personal yet very insightful comments about economic and social development in China and finishes off on what this means to Australia.
China's Economy: The Insider's View - Part One
The world is increasingly looking to China for help with the economy. But what are China's priorities? In the first episode in this two-part BBC World Service series, the country's most prominent business journalist, Rui Chenggang, argues that for China to help the world, China must help itself.
China's Economy: The Insider's View - Part Two
The Chinese market is still dominated by large state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Is it time for the country to turn towards a more Western style of capitalism, or will China continue to follow its own economic model? In the second of two special BBC World Service documentaries, a top Chinese business journalist, Rui Chenggang, concludes his exploration of the big narratives affecting his country's economy.
China's logistics demand slows, costs up
This China Daily article from 25th June 2012 highlights a slow down in logistics services demand as the sector struggels with rising costs. The extent to which recent encouragement of private investment in the logistics industry can stimulate growth remains to be seen.
China's cement output growth drops sharply
This China Daily article from 25th June 2012 points to a significant slow down in growth for cement and flat glass output in China. At the same time cost inflation is squeezing profit margins in the materials sector.
The cost of creating a greener future
This China Daily article from 25th June 2012 highlights China's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions via sustainable housing construction. China's latest 5-year plan stipulated that by 2020 of all new housing construction 30% has to be in the form of "green" buildings.
China's Economy: The Insider's View
The world is increasingly looking to China for help with the economy. But what are China's priorities? In the first episode in this two-part BBC series, the country's most prominent business journalist, Rui Chenggang, argues that for China to help the world, China must help itself.
China to charge developers for idle land
This China Daily article from 7th June 2012 highlights what kind of tools the Chinese government is able to apply to maintain economic activity.
China debates the way forward
In this ABC Lateline program from 19. April 2012 David Li from the Tsinghua University in Beijing says China is currently debating how its economy should develop and how to deal with social issues such as income inequality.
Are Chinese Business Partnerships a Good Deal for U.S. Companies?
This PBS NewsHour program from 17. Feb. 2012 considers a joint venture called Oriental DreamWorks launched Friday as Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping wrapped up a U.S. tour. Jeffrey Brown discusses the benefits and drawbacks of U.S.-China business partnerships with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations' Stephen Orlins and University of California, Irvine's Peter Navarro.
International Monetary Fund Update: Country Report No. 11/32
People's Republic of China: Financial System Stability Assessment
This report is based on the IMF/World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) exercise for China undertaken during June–December 2010. The assessment concluded that reforms have progressed well in moving to a more commercially-oriented financial system. Despite success and rapid growth, China’s financial sector is confronting several near-term risks, structural challenges, and policy-induced distortions. The main sources of risks are:
(i) the effects of a rapid crisis-related credit expansion on credit quality,
(ii) growing off-balance sheet exposures and disintermediation,
(iii) a reversal in rapidly rising real estate prices, and
(iv) an increase in imbalances due to the current economic growth pattern.
Medium-term vulnerabilities—the relatively inflexible macroeconomic policy framework, and the government’s important role in credit allocation and in the financial sector at the central and provincial levels—are building up contingent liabilities and could impair the needed reorientation of the financial system to support China’s future growth. A properly composed and timely implemented set of reforms would help address these challenges. This will require further progress in multiple areas, including
(i) deepening the commercial orientation of banks and other financial firms;
(ii) moving to more market-based means of influencing monetary and financial conditions;
(iii) continued strengthening of the capacity of the central bank on financial stability issues, and that of the supervisory commissions;
(iv) further development of financial markets and instruments to deepen and strengthen China’s financial system; and
(v) upgrading the framework for financial stability, crisis management, and resolution arrangement.
Moving along this path, however, will pose additional risks and new situations. Hence, priority must be given to establishing the institutional and operational preconditions that are crucial to successfully managing a wide-ranging financial reform agenda, and the intent outlined in the latest 12th Five-Year Plan.
One Planet - China, Banker to the World
As European leaders have so clearly demonstrated in recent weeks - if you need some cash quick, it's the Chinese you now turn too. The world's most populous nation has become the world's favourite banker. Already across the developing world, China has overtaken the World Bank to become the main lender. Chinese cash is being used to build dams, roads, hospitals and farms from Venezuala to Ghana. And as the crisis in the Eurozone shakes the world economy, Western governments are now keen to attract Chinese loans and investments too - but what will China's rise mean for the rest of the world? With this program from the BBC's One Planet, we find out more about China's growing power and influence. We visit Chinese-funded projects in Ecuador and Zambia, hear why campaigners in the West fear Chinese investment could undermine global progress on human rights and development issues, and a Chinese banker tells us why it's time the West realised China has the upper hand.
Last Train Home
In "Last Train Home" filmmaker Lixin Fan documents the migration of millions of Chinese workers during the Chinese New Year -- the largest human migration in the world -- through the prism of one family. This documentary is part of a series of independently produced films aired in partnership between The Economist and the PBSNewsHour.
Lateline: US, China can live in peace: Campbell (12/08/2011)
ABC Lateline host Ali Moore discusses the future of US China relations with Kurt Campbell, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs.
FRBSF Economic Letter: The U.S. Content of “Made in China” (2011-25, 8/8/2011)
This Economic Letter from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco asks, "....The United States is running a record trade deficit with China. This is no surprise, given the wide array of items in stores labeled “Made in China.” This Economic Letter examines what fraction of U.S. consumer spending goes for Chinese goods and what part of that fraction reflects the actual cost of imports from China. We perform a similar exercise to determine the foreign and domestic content of all U.S. imports.....".
Rebalancing China's Economic Growth - Some Insights from Japan's Experience
This article from the "Bank of Japan Working Paper Series" is a great thought piece on the evolving nature of growth in the Chinese economy, how its likely to change over time, with insights from the Japanese experience in the 1970's.
International Monetary Fund - Country Report - China
Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on June 9, 2011, with the officials of China on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on June 27, 2011.
The consultation examined the macroeconomic outlook, the potential for a property price bubble, the risks to the banking system, and the policy measures underpinning the 12th Five-Year Plan. The mission drew on the work of the FSAP—to connect financial sector reform to macroeconomic rebalancing—and of the spillover team—to trace out the international implications of rebalancing in China.
chineseposters.net is dedicated to the Chinese propaganda poster as it has been produced from 1925 till the present day. The posters are in a gallery of highlights, in web exhibitions ("To Read Too Many Books is Harmful"), and in themes. The site provides related images as well as additional information in artists' biographies, a bibliography and a selection of texts on Chinese art, propaganda and posters. This website aims to present Chinese propaganda posters through virtual exhibitions, theme presentations and a web-database. It also provides additional information in the form of biographical notes of poster artists, resources, etc. The website is owned and maintained by the Chinese Posters Foundation. Stefan R. Landsberger (Leiden University, University of Amsterdam) is editor and responsible for contents; Marien van der Heijden (International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam) is co-editor and website designer.
Growing Dissent From Youth, Labor Unions Spark Rare Protests in China
This 2011 PBS Newshour report by John Sparks was sent from the southeastern city of Xintang, which saw four days of protest in recent weeks.
Peter Day's World of Business - Managing China (30th April 2011 podcast)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/worldbiz An interesting interview with Charles-Edouard Bouée from strategy consultants Roland Berger in which Peter Day discusses differences between American and Chinese people management philosophies and disciplines. For more on the issue refer to Charles-Edouard Bouée's book on Chinese management practice "China's Management Revolution - Spirit, Land, Energy", Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2010.
Identifying the Linkages Between Major Mining Commodity Prices and China's Economic Growth - Implications for Latin America
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1186.pdf In this 2011 International Monetary Fund Working Paper, Associate Professor of Economics and Deputy Director of the Macroeconomics Division in the Party School of Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in Beijing, Yongzhen Yu looks at the long term implications for the Latin American nations from China's economic growth. He then sees them as mostly remaining supportive over both a 5 year and 10 year time horizon, even though economic growth in China could slow down in the latter half of the coming decade.
Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP
In this 2011 Bank of Canada working paper, Economist and Assistant Chief of the International Economic Analysis Department, Philipp Maier discusses different approaches for using monthly indictors to predict Chinese GDP for the current and next year. He finds that a three-modelling approach yields significantly improved results (with Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) some 60% lower) over conventional Auto Regressive (AR) benchmarks.
China Property Boom
This 2011 BBC program asks, why the entire world should be worried about soaring property prices in China? Justin Rowlatt goes both high-rise and underground to explore the extremes of the Beijing property market. He speaks to Jimmy Ye, a wealthy businessman who owns a gigantic wine cellar packed with exclusive European vintages. He also meets some of the have-nots, people with incomes who simply can't afford the spiraling prices of apartments in the city. Chen Xiafeng is a would-be property buyer who, even though she has a mortgage, doesn't have time to put money down on a flat before someone else has bought it. She hopes the property market will cool down. One of Beijing's leading property lawyers Bing Qin, fears for the consequences if it does not.
China's Green Revolution
This 2011 BBC program, looks at the fact that China's leaders say they want to clean up Chinese industry and invest in renewable low carbon technologies, but why? Is this about tackling global warming or does China just want to get a share of the booming clean energy market. Justin Rowlatt talks Dr Shi Zhengrong founder of the world's biggest solar panel manufacturer, Suntech. He also speaks to Daniel Foa, founder of FairKlima Capital who works with a local micro financing scheme to encourage investment in a novel low carbon technology - collecting bio-gas from pig waste which creates methane for a continuous supply of gas for home cooking.
This 2011 BBC program looks at Germany and China, which are two of the world's most successful exporters but increasingly they find they are on the same turf. As China moves away from simple manufacturing it needs technology. But there is a warning from Germany that China will take German technology? Artur Fischer, the head of the Berlin Stock Exchange, used to be involved in manufacturing. He tells Steve Evans that when businesses outsourced to factories in China, they found that the Chinese had copied their goods and then tried to sell them back to Germany. China says it is clamping down on the piracy of products. Stephen Wong is the director of the Hong Kong trading office in Berlin and tells Steve how China is going about this.
China's Current 5-Year Plan
This is the official website of China's 12th Five Year Plan, the roadmap for Chinese development to 2017.
These 2011 articles highlight the measures the People's Bank of China is implementing in its effort to curb inflation. We think the extent to which this might slow growth of the Chinese economy and the implications this will have on the growth of the global economy appear to be underestimated by many investors.
The Relationship Between China and the United States
A 2011 Charlie Rose interview with Carter Administration National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brezinski on China...& his book " Second Chance - Three Presidents and the crisis of American Superpower" is excellent.
China's Empty Homes
This 2010 BBC World Service - Business Daily program discusses how China is preparing new measures to attack rising inflation. It has already tried to slow down its galloping economy by cutting back bank lending and bringing in measures to deflate the bubble in property prices. Millions of middle class Chinese have gambled on buying new apartments. It's even reported that speculators are hoarding a large number of properties to fuel price rises.
China's Economy - Does Size Matter?
In this 2010 BBC World Service - Business Daily program, the question is asked: Just how big is China's economy? They dig through the numbers in Beijing, and ask if state capitalism is the right model to keep growth on track? Yasheng Huang, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, shares his view.
An Australian Perspective on China
2010 Charlie Rose interview with former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating on the changing role of China and Asia in the global economy and politics.
e-Commerce in China - the Alibaba story
2010 Charlie Rose interview with Jack Ma, Founder and Chairman of Alibaba.
The Tea Thieves: How A Drink Shaped An Empire
In this 2010 BBC program, Peter Day asks two expert witnesses to compare the two countries vying for the position of number one in the world economy: India and China. Is it a race, and if so, which of them will win?
The Biggest Domino
A 2010 ABC "Foreign Correspondent" program by Stephen McDonell in which he takes a closer look at the apparently unstoppable growth of the Chinese economy
China - Hidden bank loans
In this 2010 interview with credit rating agency Fitch's Charlene Chu she discusses how Chinese banks have been taking risky loans off-balance sheet and packaged them up as securities in trust companies.
In this 2010 interview about his book "Country Driving", Peter Hassler describes his observations on changes in rural China as its population migrates towards large industrialised cities.
China's Ghost Cities - The Great Growth Dis-connect
The above items are likely to send a chill down the spine of believers in the Chinese growth story...
China: Shaking the World
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/documentaries As China takes on an ever more important role in the global economy, this 2010 BBC documentary considers how its influence is growing by examining political, economic and cultural aspects in this transformation. The four part series presented by Michael Robinson, a BBC China reporter in the early 1990's, now returning and recording his observations:
Part one: Infrastructure transformation
Part two: State planned China and free market ideology
- Part three: The management of social tension
Part four: Can the Chinese model that has worked so well for 30 years continue to deliver growth for the next 30 years?
Determinants of China's Private Consumption: An International Perspective
This 2010 working paper by the International Monetary Fund, analyses why between 1980 and 2008 Chinese private consumption as a % of GDP dropped from 55% to just 37%.
The Myth of Asia's Miracle
In this 1994 article Nobel Prize laureate in Economics and Economics Professor at Stanford University Paul Krugman takes a look at economic growth in China via the prism of productivity gains.
Indian Economic Planning
In 1963 Milton Freedman wrote about "planned economic development" in an Indian economic context, after spending some time with the Indian Ministry of Finance in 1955. The note is of relevance to Chinese economic development consideration, and some of the pitfalls that may emerge over time.
On Correcting Mistaken Ideas in the Party
These selected works of Mao Tse-tung from 1929, outline the approach to collective decision making. This work has been influential in forming the thinking of other political leaders, especially in North Korea.