That's Interesting
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FRBSF – The Fog of Numbers
20th July, 2020In times of economic turbulence, revisions to GDP data can be sizable, which makes conducting economic policy in real time during a crisis more difficult. A simple model based on Okun’s law can help refine the advance data release of real GDP growth to provide an improved reading of economic activity in real time.
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FRBSF – The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
20th July, 2020The level of the social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial factor for evaluating the costs of climate change. This paper demonstrates that the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate is the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs.
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An Unemployment Crisis after the Onset of COVID-19
27th May, 2020The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. labor market, with massive job losses and a spike in unemployment to its highest level since the Great Depression. How long unemployment will remain at crisis levels is highly uncertain and will depend on the speed and success of coronavirus containment measures.
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Coronavirus could force China to rein in Belt and Road ambitions
06th May, 2020Domestic economic challenges due to COVID-19 are likely to force China to dial back on big-ticket infrastructure projects. But Beijing will not shy away from bankrolling virus-hit countries to score geopolitical gains.
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FRBSF – Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
19th April, 2020How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required.
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